1980~2018年龙泉驿区降水的多尺度特征

Multi-scale Characteristics of Precipitation in Longquanyi District from 1980 to 2018

  • 摘要: 应用趋势分析、Morlet小波分析以及Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,研究了1980~2018年龙泉驿区降水整体趋势,包括降水的年际变化和季节性趋势,以及降水日数和月、旬、日降水的集中性特征。结果表明:龙泉驿区年降水量整体下降趋势明显,存在3a和9a振荡周期;降水日数存在7~8a和12a振荡主周期,以及4a振荡次周期。可引发龙泉驿区地质灾害活动的降水主要发生在7月和8月,二者降水量在年代际尺度上的变化趋势相反。旬降水量与日降水量均呈明显的准正态分布规律,旬降水量主要集中时段是7月下旬与8月中旬,日降水量较大值也出现在7月与8月。

     

    Abstract: With the trend analysis, Morlet wavelet analysis and m-k test, the overall trend of precipitation in Longquanyi District from 1980 to 2018 are studied, including the interannual and seasonal trend of precipitation, characteristics of the number of precipitation days and the months, ten-day and daily precipitation. The results show that the annual precipitation in Longquanyi District has an obvious downward trend, accompanied by three-year and nine-year periodic fluctuations. The precipitation days have seven-year or eight-year and twelve-year periodic oscillation, and four-years sub periodic oscillation. The precipitation that can cause geological disaster in Longquanyi area are mainly in July and August, and the change trend of precipitation in the two months is opposite on decadal scale. Ten- day precipitation and daily precipitation show obvious quasi-normal distribution. Ten-day precipitation mainly concentrated in late July and mid August, and the larger value of daily precipitation also appeared in July and August.

     

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