不同分辨率西南区域模式对冕宁“6.26”突发性暴雨过程的模拟

Study of "6.26" Sudden-Rainstorm in Mianning with Different Horizontal Resolution Business Model (SWC-WARR)

  • 摘要: 针对冕宁“6.26”突发性暴雨过程,对比分析了不同水平分辨率的西南区域业务模式对此次山区突发性强降水的预报效果,结果表明:复杂下垫面区域突发性强降水的落区和强度对模式分辨率均较为敏感;模式分辨率的提高可以更加精细地刻画复杂地形,使之更接近真实地形状况,进而得到更加精准的局地热力和动力状况,因此能更好地模拟中小尺度天气系统;提高模式分辨率对预报结果的改进具体表现为雨带特征更加清晰、强降水中心增多且更加细化,以及降水强度明显增大。

     

    Abstract: Based on the prediction results of the "6. 26" sudden heavy rain in Mianning by SWC-WARR, the forecast effect of different model resolutions on the sudden heavy rain in mountainous areas was compared and analyzed, and it is concluded that: the fall area and the strength of sudden heavy rain in complex underlying surface area are sensitive to model resolution, the improvment of the model resolution can describe the complex terrain more accurately, make it closer to the real terrain conditions, and get more accurate local thermal and dynamic state, simulate small and medium scale weather system better, the improvment of the forecast results by increasing the model resolution shows that the characteristics of the rain belt are more clear, the strong precipitation centers are increased and refined, and the precipitation intensity is increased significantly.

     

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