Abstract:
A comparative study of a rainstorm over the Sichuan Basin during 12UTC 25 June to 12UTC 26 June 2018 is done by using the regional model of Southwest China (SWCWARMS),fine grid forecast model of European Center (EC) and regional model of China Meteorological Center (GRAPES).The various models’ results show the missing alarm rate of EC model and GRPAES model is higher than SWCWARMS model.The precipitation amount and precipitation center position in SWCWARMS are close to actual situation.For the simulation of meso-scale synoptic system-Southwest China vortex (SWCV),during the process of its occurrence and enhancement in the initial 12 hours,EC cannot predict SWCV well and the rainfall prediction is much less than actual precipitation.GRAPES predicts the evolution of SWCV’s position and intensity accurately.Its result is most close to FNL data and SWCWARMS’s result is similar to the GRAPES’s.However,only SWCWARMS can give the heavy precipitation located at the south side and northwest quadrant of SWCV.At the fading stage of SWCV,the three models tend to be the same.At the aspect of orographic precipitation,GRAPES model is the worst model for the 6-hour accumulated simulation and SWCWARMS performs best.Meanwhile,EC model is the medium one.In the Sichuan Basin,the vorticity and convergence in EC and GRAPES are smaller than SWCWARMS.At the west edge of Sichuan Basin,the vertical velocity and relative humidity at low-level troposphere in EC and GRAPES is smaller than SWCWRAMS as well.All above lead to the lighter precipitation at the west edge of Sichuan Basin.Only the simulation precipitation from SWCWARMS model comes up to the real rainfall situation.Especially it has good ability to simulate the rainfall over complex terrain and better prediction.