1961~2016年四川盆地夏季高温热浪变化特征分析
Characteristics of Climate Change of Summer Heat Waves in Sichuan Basin during 1961~2016
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摘要: 利用27个测站逐日最高气温资料,对1961~2016年四川盆地夏季高温热浪的时空演变特征进行研究。结果表明:(1)四川盆地高温热浪频次、强度和持续时间均呈增加趋势,其中热浪强度的增加趋势最为显著。三者都经历了先较弱增加后明显减少再明显增加的年代际变化过程。20世纪80年代是热浪低发期,2010~2016年为明显高发期。(2)盆地高温热浪气候平均空间分布大致呈东南多(强)西北少(弱),空间差异显著,多发区主要集中在重庆西南部一带。三项指标除盆地东南边缘小部分为减少趋势外,基本呈增加趋势,增幅大值带均沿重庆北部至四川南部呈东北-西南走向。相比而言,盆地西部增加趋势比盆地东部更加显著。(3)盆地高温热浪频次、强度和持续时间均存在显著的年际变化周期,且具有较为一致的2年周期。相关分析表明,三者均与西太平洋副高脊线和北界位置存在显著的正相关。Abstract: Based on the daily observational summer maximum temperature data at 27 stations from 1961 to 2016,we have discussed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of summer heat waves in Sichuan Basin by using the methods of trend analysis and wavelet analysis and so on.The results show that:1) The frequency,intensity and duration of summer heat waves in Sichuan basin present an detectable increase,and the trend of intensity is the most significant.All of them show an distinct decadal revolution of weakly increasing-obviously decreasing in the 1960s to 1980s,while abruptly increasing from the 1990s up to now.2) The spatial distribution of climatic summer heat waves are generally characterized by less (weak) northwest and more (strong) southeast.The features of spatial difference are significant.High frequency and intensity of heat waves are mainly observed in the southwestern Chongqing.In the past 56 years,the summer heat waves in most areas of Sichuan Basin have increased,except for a small part of the southeastern margin areas.The large-value bands of increase are northeast-southwest along the north part of Chongqing to the south of Sichuan province.In contrast,the increase of heat waves in the west part of the basin is more significant than that in the eastern.3) Wavelet analysis indicates that there are significant inter-annual variations in the heat waves frequency,intensity and duration,and they have a relatively consistent two-year cycle.Correlation analyses show that there are significant simultaneous positive correlation between the heat waves and western Pacific subtropical high ridge line and northern boundary.