广元市降水特征及变化趋势分析

Analysis on Precipitation Characteristics and Changing Tendency of Guangyuan

  • 摘要: 为揭示广元极端降水的变化趋势,利用1961~2015年逐时和逐日降水数据分析广元降水特征和极端降水事件变化。结果表明,广元降水总量年际变化不明显,小时降水越来越极端;在02~06时,小时降水量呈增加趋势,苍溪和青川降水年际倾向率日变化为单峰单谷型,旺苍、广元和剑阁为双峰单谷型。广元市大部分地区短时强降水次数逐年增加,在1980s和2000年后有明显增加,特别是1980s的旺苍站,增幅达到71%;广元小时及日降水最大值有增加趋势。1961~2015年,日降水量≥25mm天数(R25mm)、日降水强度(SDⅡ)和极端降水量(R95)的年际倾向率分别为0.0558d·a-1、0.0168mm·d-1·a-1和0.5998mm·a-1,而持续降水日数(CWD)则以-0.0202d·a-1的速率减少,广元每年降水的持续天数在减少,但降水情况越来越极端。

     

    Abstract: To reveal the trend of extreme precipitation in Guangyuan of Sichuang,base on the hourly and daily precipitation data during 1961~2015 to analysis the characteristics changing tendency of the diurnal variation of precipitation,hourly precipitation intensity, short-period heavy precipitation, and select the four extreme precipitation indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to study the extreme precipitation events in Guangyuan.The results indicate that:The interannual variability of total precipitation in Guangyuan is not obvious,but hourly precipitation is getting more and more extreme.The hourly precipitation shows an increasing trend from02:00am to06:00am,and diurnal variation of trend magnitudes of precipitation in Cangci and Qingchuan is single peak-valley pattern, and Wangcang, Guangyuan and Jiange is one valley between two peaks pattern, the frequency of short-period heavy precipitation in most area of Guangyuan is increase yearly, and the interdecadal change in the 1980s has an obvious increase especially in Wangcang which increases71%,the maximum hourly and daily precipitation in Guangyuan are increasing.The trend magnitudes of very heavy precipitation days(R25mm),simple daily intensity index(SDII) and very wet day precipitation(R95) is 0.0558d·a-1, 0.0168mm·d-1·a-1 and 0.5998mm·a-1,respectively, while consecutive wet days(CWD) decreased by-0.0202d·a-1 during 1961~2015 in Guangyuan, which the number of continuous precipitation days is decreasing per year,while the precipitation is getting more and more extreme.

     

/

返回文章
返回