西南区域自动站资料对区域模式预报影响的同化试验分析

The Assimilation Experimental Analysis about the Effect of Southwestem Regional Automatic Station Data on the Region Model

  • 摘要: 为了探讨区域地面站资料对数值预报的影响,本文采用西南区域业务模式系统,设计多组试验方案,开展基于西南区域地面站资料的同化试验,分析区域地面站资料对模式初值及预报的影响。研究表明:西南区域自动站资料的同化有一定的正效果,如对地面要素的改善,提高24h小雨预报TS值,对强降水落区和低涡结构的描述更准确等,但不显著;相对而言,是否同化区域站资料在较强降水过程中的作用更明显,通常同化的自动站资料越多,所起的作用越大,AWS-2015的同化效果略好于AWS-2016的同化效果。如何更好地发挥区域地面站资料在数值同化模拟中的效果,还有待做深入的研究工作。

     

    Abstract: In order to study the effect of regional automatic station data on numerical model,the assimlation experiments have been done according to multigroup testing program to analyse the infulence of the data on the initial value and prediction of the model based on the data of southwest regional autumatic station and southwest regional model system.The researches show that the assimilation of southwest regional automatical station data has definite positive effect,such as improving surface meterological elements,increasing TSscore value of 24h light rain forecast, giving more accuracy describing of precipitation area and low vortex structure, but the effect is non-significant.Comparatively speaking,whether assimlating regional sattion data is more significant in stronger precipitation process.The data assimilated is more and the effect is greater.The assimilation effect of AWS-2015 is better than that of AWS-2016.How to obtain better effect of regional automatic station data on numerical assimilation and simulation,an in depth-study will been need.

     

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