Abstract: Based on the summer precipitation anomalies of four meteorological stations in Southern Sichuan Economic Zone from 1981 to 2010, by structuring the fuzzy affiliation functions between various agricultural drought hazard levels (light, mild, heavy and severe) and precipitation anomaly and interval average membership, as well as by using the information diffusion theory, the probability of every agricultural drought hazard level in this region is calculated.The result shows that:1) generally, the probability of various agricultural drought hazard levels in this region is high, and the maximum probability can reach about 41.73% in Zigong area;2) in terms of severe agricultural drought hazard level, the maximum probability is as high as about 7.47% in Yibin area, and the remaining ranked as Neijiang, Zigong, Luzhou;3) based on uncertainty theory, for the first time the probability characteristics of different agricultural drought hazard levels are quantitatively revealed in Southern Sichuan Economic Zone, and which provides a new reference for agricultural drought hazard research.