四川省小麦条锈病冬繁农业气候风险区划

Agricultural Climate Risk Regionalization of Wheat Stripe Rust in Winter-reproductive in Sichuan

  • 摘要: 本文针对盆地区代表点的小麦条锈病冬繁与气候条件的关系进行相关性分析,由此确定四川小麦条锈病冬繁的适宜、次适宜、不适宜气候条件指标。从风险基本理论出发,建立了包括气候条件出现频率和寄主存在数量两个环境因子的四川省小麦条锈病冬繁农业气候风险模型,并划分了高、中、低风险等级。基于GIS技术,对四川省小麦条锈病冬繁农业气候风险进行了区划。区划结果表明,四川省的川西高原地区和川西南山地是小麦条锈病冬繁阶段低风险或无风险区,而盆地区是中、高风险的集中区。其中,盆地中部地区是主要高风险区。

     

    Abstract: This paper summarizes the research results of relation ships between the wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive and climatic environmental conditions,and analyzes Zitong County which is often prone area in the basin.On this basis,this paper divides respectively the wheat stripe rust meteorological condition into three class indexes,such as more suitable class,suitable class and unsuitable class in the winter.The wheat stripe rust agricultural climate risk model is developed by using risk analysis and hierarchical analysis methods.Two environmental factors are considered in risk model,including the occurrence frequency of meteorological condition which is more suitable and suitable for the wheat stripe rust development and the number of host(for example,the plant proportion).Subsequently,the risk degree and the risk classes are determined clearly.Then the risk indexes are divided into three grades: the high,the medium and the low.The Agricultural climate risk regionalization of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive in Sichuan is studied,by using the GIS techniques.The results indicate that platean of the west of Sichuan plateau and the mountain of southwest of Sichuan are a low-risk or totally safe areas.In addition,Sichuan basin is divided into medium or high risk area.Among them,high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the central region of the basin.

     

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