雾的特征分析、预报方法及预报模型建立
Characteristics Analysis,Prediction Methods and Builting the Forecasting Model of Fog
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摘要: 本文利用1980~2010年巴中地区历史观测资料,研究出巴中大雾年际变化及月变化特征,综合利用地面资料以及NECP 1°×1°再分析资料,对发生在巴中地区的大雾典型个例进行诊断分析,探讨巴中地区大雾天气的成因,根据巴中地区自身的地理特点,通过分析比较筛选出对预报有意义的气象要素,建立一套适用于本地区的预报方法,利用VB软件开发预报雾的应用平台,经检验表明该模式能很好的预报出我市大雾天气,有很好的参考价值。Abstract: By using the historical observations from 1980 to 2010 to research the annual change and monthly change for the fog in Bazhong,with Comprehensive utilization of upper-air data,surface data and NCEP 1×1° reanalysis data,it analyes the causes of fog in Bazhong.According to Bazhong geographical features,elect the meaningful meteorological elements to built the forecasting fog modle by VB application platform software,the result showes that the model can predict the heavy fog in our city well,there is a good reference value.